Concept

Metre — where it appears

The recurring pattern of strong and weak beats a listener infers from a stream of onsets and then hears the stream through. It is not in the signal, and it decides which notes count as structural, which makes harmonic analysis depend on it.

Named by 51 essays across 4 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

E(3, 8) as a cycle. A rhythm drawn round a circle, one equal arc per step, with the struck steps filled. On a circle the pattern has no beginning, which is why the same necklace of onsets is several different named rhythms depending on where a listener decides bar one is.

Rhythm is a circle, and the bar line is a choice

Draw a rhythm as a line and it looks like a sequence of decisions. Draw it as a cycle and the same pattern turns out to be shared across continents, differing only in where somebody decided to start counting.

rhythm · Cyclic-rhythm
One pattern, four metres. The same 12-step onset pattern read under 4 candidate metres, each scored by a preference rule set: 3 for a strong position that carries an onset, -2 for one that does not, -1 for an onset that lands off every strong position. The scores are 4/4 -4, 3/4 12, 6/8 12, 12/8 as 3+3+3+3 12, so 3/4 and 6/8 and 12/8 as 3+3+3+3 tie and the model does not choose. Nothing about the sound differs between these readings; the bar line is supplied by the listener.

The beat is inferred, and sometimes wrongly

A bar line is not in the sound. One sequence of onsets supports a reading in four, in three and in six, and which one a listener settles on comes from a small set of preference rules rather than from anything in the signal — which is why the same recording can be heard two ways and why nobody can be talked out of either.

rhythm · Metre induction
The same induction, one level up. Bar-level onsets from thirty-two-bar AABA — a bar is marked where a section or a key begins — scored against hypermetres of 2, 3, 4, 6, 8 bars with the identical function the beat-level figures use. The best-fitting period is 8 bars, which at 108 beats a minute lasts 17.8 seconds.

The bar above the bar

A four-bar group is a bar whose beats are bars. That is not an analogy — it is the same computation, and the same metre-induction model produces one when it is handed bars instead of beats, unchanged. What decides where the hierarchy of levels stops is not in the arithmetic at all, and it is a number the phrase essay already measured.

form · Metre induction
One pattern, four metres. The same 6-step onset pattern read under 3 candidate metres, each scored by a preference rule set: 3 for a strong position that carries an onset, -2 for one that does not, -1 for an onset that lands off every strong position. The scores are the 3 is the beat 8, the 2 is the beat 4, every step is a beat 8, so the 3 is the beat and every step is a beat tie and the model does not choose. Nothing about the sound differs between these readings; the bar line is supplied by the listener.

Which of the two is the beat

A polyrhythm is notated as a bar of two with three laid across it. Run the metre rules used here over the composite and they choose the three — at every ratio tried, without exception. Add the one other rule the rules have, and the answer changes hands at a bar of 1,013 milliseconds, which is 118 to the minute.

rhythm · Polyrhythm
One pattern, four metres. The same 8-step onset pattern read under 4 candidate metres, each scored by a preference rule set: 3 for a strong position that carries an onset, -2 for one that does not, -1 for an onset that lands off every strong position. The scores are downbeat on step 1 -1, downbeat on step 2 -7, downbeat on step 3 -1, downbeat on step 4 -1, so downbeat on step 1 and downbeat on step 3 and downbeat on step 4 tie and the model does not choose. Nothing about the sound differs between these readings; the bar line is supplied by the listener.

The right period at the wrong phase

Finding the beat is two problems, not one. How far apart the beats are, and where the first one is. This site's rule set answers the first confidently on a tresillo and returns a three-way tie on the second — the same score for the downbeat on step one, step four and step seven — which is not a near miss but no answer at all.

rhythm · Metre induction
Syncopation against a bar of 8. An 8-step pattern with 3 onsets, against the metrical weights of its bar. A position's weight is zero on the downbeat and one lower at each level down the subdivision tree, drawn here as the depth of the bar hanging beneath it. A note on a weak position followed by a rest on a stronger one costs the difference. the tresillo, in a bar of eight scores 2 — the note at step 4 against the rest at step 5, costing 2.

Syncopation is a number about the metre

Longuet-Higgins and Lee price a syncopation at the metrical weight a note skips over. That makes it computable, and it makes it a property of a pair rather than of a rhythm — the son clave scores 4 read from step one, 2 from step three and 8 from step four, and not one onset has moved. Worse, the induction rules pick very nearly the reading that scores lowest.

rhythm · Metre induction
One pattern, four metres. The same 16-step onset pattern read under 4 candidate metres, each scored by a preference rule set: 3 for a strong position that carries an onset, -2 for one that does not, -1 for an onset that lands off every strong position. The scores are downbeat on step 1 0, downbeat on step 2 -12, downbeat on step 3 -12, downbeat on step 4 0, so downbeat on step 1 and downbeat on step 4 tie and the model does not choose. Nothing about the sound differs between these readings; the bar line is supplied by the listener.

The beat that is never sounded

A listener who has heard four bars of a groove and then hears two bars with the downbeats taken out does not move the downbeat. This site's rule set does, every time, on every pattern tried — and the direction it moves in says exactly what kind of model would be needed instead.

perception · Metre induction
Two metres as trees. Two metres — 9/8 as 3 × 3, 3 + 3 + 3; 9/8 as 2+2+2+3, 2 + 2 + 2 + 3 — each drawn as the bar dividing into beats and the beats dividing again. Simple and compound metres have the same number of beats and differ in the second division; an additive metre has beats of unequal length, which no single division produces.

No term for an unequal beat

A Balkan bar of nine is four beats, three short and one long. The induction rules lay their strong positions at a fixed period, so the only readings of nine it can offer are nine, three and one — and for a bar of seven, where seven is prime, the only readings are seven and one. The right answer is not among the candidates.

rhythm · Metre induction
A tracker following a tempo that will not stay still. The tracker's error as a fraction of a beat, against beat number, for 3 rates of tempo change with a period-correction gain of 0.2. It settles at 0.025 of a beat behind at 0.5 per cent a beat, 0.092 of a beat behind at 2.0 per cent a beat, 0.206 of a beat behind at 5.0 per cent a beat. It does not lose the beat; it lags, by very nearly the rate divided by the period-correction gain, and the lag reaches a quarter of a beat at 6.3 per cent a beat — at which point the tracker is nearer the wrong onset than the right one.

A metre has to be able to change its mind

Replace the scoring function with a phase-corrected oscillator and the two failures reported earlier separate. The beat now survives two silent bars, drifting 23 milliseconds of a 560-millisecond beat. But it does not lose a moving tempo so much as lag behind it, by the rate over the correction gain — and a cadential ritardando that halves the tempo in eight beats is faster than the model can follow.

form · Metre induction
The gap that decides whether two clocks are two. The closest approach of the two streams in each ratio, at 100 to the minute in 4-time — a bar of 2.4 seconds. It is the bar divided by the product of the two numbers, which is an identity and is checked here against the measured minimum. 9:5 is the last ratio whose onsets are securely separate at this tempo; past it the two streams' events fall inside the window in which the ear cannot put two onsets in order, and what is heard is one irregular pattern rather than two clocks. The bound has a product in it, which is why 3:2 and 4:3 are everywhere and 11:7 is a notation.

The ratio that stops being two

Eight earlier essays have taken two clocks at a rational ratio to be a thing a listener can hold. There is a ratio past which it is not, and the bound is not where anyone would look for it: the cycle is exactly one bar long at every ratio, so the length of the pattern separates nothing. What separates them is the closest the two streams ever come, which is one part in their least common multiple — 400 milliseconds for three against two, and seventeen for thirteen against eleven, which is not two events at all.

rhythm · Polyrhythm
The same eight notes, read three ways. The scale, eight quavers, scored against every triad and seventh at every root. Barred as written the best reading is C major7 at 0.850; with the barline one quaver later it is D minor7 at 0.850. With no metre — every note weighted the same — 4 readings tie at 0.625 and the passage has no best analysis at all. The notes are identical in all three. What changed is where the bar starts, which is not a fact about harmony.

Which notes are the chord

A progression is a list of chords, and before there is a list something has to decide which of the notes sounding are chord tones and which are passing. Take the eight notes of a scale as eight quavers and score every triad and seventh at every root: barred as written the best reading is C major seventh, with the barline moved by one quaver it is D minor seventh, and with no metre at all three readings tie exactly and the passage has no best analysis. Same eight notes in all three. Harmonic analysis is a function of a variable that is not harmony.

harmony · Progression
One pattern, four metres. The same 12-step onset pattern read under 3 candidate metres, each scored by a preference rule set: 3 for a strong position that carries an onset, -2 for one that does not, -1 for an onset that lands off every strong position. The scores are 3/4 -4, 6/8 12, 2/4 -4, so 6/8 wins. The page prints 3/4, which the model does not prefer — it ranks 6/8 above it. Nothing about the sound differs between these readings; the bar line is supplied by the listener.

The time signature is a claim

A bar line is not a measurement. It is a claim about where the accents are, made before the sound exists, and there is a metre-induction model here that can be handed the same onsets and asked whether it agrees. On a hemiola it does not: the page says three and the model says six, by a margin of twelve against minus four. And on a bar of seven the signature is not even a candidate — what decides the reading is the beaming, which the signature does not contain.

rhythm · Notation
note length against the onsets. Every candidate metre's fit to a 16-step pattern with 4 onsets, plotted against how strongly note length is weighted. At a gain of zero the scoring is the onset-only one every earlier model used, and the winner is step 1 and step 4. At a gain of 0.05 the answer becomes step 4. 2 candidates are exactly flat — step 2 and step 3 have no onset on any strong position, so there is no credit for the cue to multiply and no weighting of it can move the line.

What the onsets left out

Eight essays induce a metre from a list of ones and zeros, and every failure they recorded was argued about as a failure of the rules. Two of the three are not. Note length is already in that list and the scoring throws it away: put it back and the son clave's two-way tie resolves to the notated downbeat. But the groove with its beat removed cannot be repaired by any cue at any strength, and the reason is arithmetic rather than empirical — the true phase has no onset on any of its strong positions, so there is no credit for a cue to multiply and its line is exactly flat.

form · Metre induction
How unequal a beat is allowed to be. Five bars — 2+3, 2+2+3, 2+2+2+3, 2+5, 3+4 — with the range of subdivision durations at which every one of the bar's beats stays inside the window where a series of events can be a beat — a tenth of a second to two seconds. The metres made of twos and threes have the widest bands, and they have them for a reason that is not about the window: a group of four subdivisions decomposes into two twos and a group of five into a two and a three, so neither is a beat at all. The only indivisible lengths are two and three, which fixes the ratio between an aksak metre's long and short beats at 3:2 by arithmetic.

How unequal a beat is allowed to be

A Balkan bar of nine is four beats, three short and one long, and the long one is always three subdivisions against two. Never four against two, never five against three. The usual explanation is that this is what the tradition does; there is a better one and it needs no perceptual measurement at all. A group of four subdivisions decomposes into two twos and a group of five into a two and a three, so neither is a beat — it is two. The only indivisible lengths are two and three, which fixes the ratio at three to two before anybody listens, and leaves the tempo window to decide only how fast the bar can go.

rhythm · Additive metre
What the joint search changes, and what it never changes. Over 552 constructed passages of eight slots with rests, how often the joint reading differs from the pipeline's. The chord differs in 29 per cent and the barline in 31, with both differing in 20. The key differs in 0 per cent — never — because the key is read from a pitch-class histogram, which does not know where the bar starts or which notes are chord tones. Two of the three decisions are entangled and the third is not.

Three decisions that constrain each other

Every model here decides one thing at a time — the key from the pitch classes, the metre from the onsets, the chords from the metre — and an earlier essay ended by saying a listener does all three at once. Resolving them jointly costs a hundred and fifty-seven times the search and changes the reading of two passages in five. It never once changes the key, and the reason it cannot is the reason the whole account is built the way it is.

harmony · Progression
A cycle whose position is in the instrumentation. 3 isochronous layers over a cycle of 16 steps, at periods 16, 8, 4. Every layer on its own is perfectly symmetric and tells a listener nothing about where they are; the combination gives 4 distinct signatures over 16 steps, and hearing one of them leaves 2.81 bits unknown. The information is in which instruments sound rather than in where the onsets fall, which is a different answer from the one a single timeline gives — and it needs no asymmetry anywhere. The cost is 7 strokes a cycle, 0.44 to the step, spread over 3 players.

A cycle that says where it is

Euclidean timelines were asked how quickly they tell a listener where in the cycle they are, and answered it with rotational asymmetry: a symmetric pattern never locates at all. A colotomic cycle answers the same question with nothing asymmetric in it. Several isochronous layers at nested periods — a gong every sixteen, a kempul every eight, a kenong every four — put the position in which instruments sound, and the position is legible from a single stroke.

rhythm · Cyclic-rhythm
Expectation as a curve, and what a change costs where it lands. Every quantity so far is attached to a chord change: a list of surprises, one per event. A listener's expectation is continuous — it sharpens through a bar and collapses when the change arrives — and the two ingredients for it are already here, the harmonic rhythm and the metrical beat weights. The curve is the hazard: given that the chord has not changed yet, the chance that it changes on this beat. It runs from 0.043 on the weakest beat to 0.290 on the downbeat, a ratio of 6.7, against 0.125 if every beat were alike. The marked beats are where the changes actually arrive, and their timing bill is 3.6 bits against 6.0 for a listener with no metre — so these changes are 1.7 times cheaper to expect than a metreless listener would find them. That term is new: an earlier essay prices which chord arrived and this prices when, and a listener meets the sum.

Expectation is a curve, not a list

Every quantity so far is attached to a chord change: a list of surprises, one per event. A listener's expectation is continuous, sharpening through a bar and collapsing when the change arrives — and the two ingredients for it were already here, in two other accounts. What comes out is a second surprise, for when a chord arrives rather than for which one it is.

harmony · Tonal-expectation
The number nobody has moves the size and not the order. The mean total surprise per chord change, against how much the two surprises share. At zero they are independent and the total is their sum; at one they are the same event and the total is the larger of the two. The mean falls by a factor of 1.53 across that whole range, which is the size of the thing a corpus would settle. The ordering of the events by total surprise does not move at all until the very end: 5 of the 6 correlations swept give exactly the ordering independence gives, and only perfect dependence changes it, by 3 places out of 7. The most surprising event in the passage is the same one at every correlation. So the corpus three separate accounts have recorded wanting would change what this figure reports and not what it concludes.

Two surprises and one event

A chord change is surprising twice over — in which chord it is, and in when it comes — and a listener meets one event. Adding two surprises needs to know how much they share, which is a fact about a repertoire nobody has. Sweeping it instead: the total moves by half, the ordering does not move at all, and the most surprising moment in a passage is the same one whatever the answer turns out to be.

harmony · Tonal-expectation
Where a cycle of 16 at 16, 8, 4 outruns the listener's memory. The residual uncertainty a listener is left with once the evidence has stopped accumulating, against how long one turn of a 16-step cycle takes. The listener's memory of a step halves after 3.5 seconds throughout; what changes is how many steps that is. At a cycle of 1.6 seconds it is 35 steps and every design reaches certainty, which is the regime a clave is played in. At 60 seconds it is 0.93 steps and none of them does: layers at 16, 8, 4 settles at 1.89 bits, son clave settles at 2.27 bits, the bossa-nova pattern settles at 2.38 bits, the best single line of 7 settles at 1.85 bits. That is the range a gong cycle occupies, and it is the design that wins there.

The cycle that outruns the memory

A timeline and a colotomy were compared at equal strokes and the comparison had no clock in it. A memory span is a number of seconds and a cycle is a number of steps, so the two only meet through a tempo — and at a clave's two seconds a listener's memory covers twenty-eight steps and forgets nothing, while at a gong cycle's forty it covers 1.4 and forgets almost everything. The single line is the better locator up to twenty-three seconds a cycle and the layered code is better after it, which is very close to where each is actually used.

rhythm · Cyclic-rhythm
A third of the timing surprise is paid for by nothing happening. Every beat of a bar of 4/4 at 1 chord change a bar, with what it costs a listener in expectation. The lower block is the arrival — the chance the chord changes here times what that change costs to be surprised by. The upper block is the hold, which is paid when the chord does not change and is charged at every beat rather than at every event. Over the bar the arrivals come to 2.61 bits and the non-arrivals to 1.29, so the term never spent before is 33 per cent of the total rather than most of it. The two together are exactly the binary entropy of each beat's own hazard, which is why the bar's whole timing bill is 3.90 bits and cannot be raised by rearranging where the changes fall.

The surprise of nothing happening

A hazard charges a listener twice — once when the chord changes and once, quietly, at every beat it does not. The second term was expected to dominate, because there are more beats than changes. It is a third of the bill at one chord a bar and never reaches a half at any rate a metre survives, because the cost of a beat where nothing happens is second-order small.

harmony · Tonal-expectation
What a chord change costs where it actually lands. Every beat of a bar of 4/4 at 1 change a bar, priced as a listener meets it: the pale block is what has already been paid waiting through the beats the chord did not come on, and the dark block is the arrival itself. Their sum is what it costs to be surprised by a change here. The last column is the remaining case, never priced before: no change in the bar at all, at 1.61 bits and a probability of 0.33. The 9 costs are a proper distribution — 1.000 — which is the check that this is one model rather than two. And the spread is the finding: the arrival term alone puts a factor of 6.7 between the best and worst beat, and counting the waiting makes it 19.

Where the chord actually lands

Every timing surprise so far is evaluated on a downbeat: the curve spans a factor of 6.7 and every number is read at its peak. Charge the waiting as well as the arrival and the costs over a bar become a proper distribution, the spread between the best and worst beat rises to a factor of 19.5, and a third of the probability sits on a bar in which nothing changes at all.

harmony · Tonal-expectation
The reading the joint search was never offered. The best chord at each mixture of the two segmentation cues, and what the same weighting gives the same notes shuffled into a different order. Both fall along the axis, and most of the fall is the ruler rather than the music: a metrical weighting over a bar of eight spans a factor of eight and a three-to-one duration spans three, so the weighted note mass is 2.1 times more concentrated at the left of the figure than at the right, and a concentrated mass is easier for four notes to cover. What is not the ruler is the gap. It is widest at a mixture of 0.75, where the reading is D minor7 at 2.15 standard deviations above its own null, against 1.12 for C major7 at a mixture of nought. The joint search holds this axis at nought, so D minor7 is not among the hypotheses it considers.

A fourth decision, and two that were never made

The joint search resolves key, metre and segmentation together and holds the segmentation's cue mixture at zero. Adding the mixture is one loop, and reading the search in order to add it turns up something worse than a missing axis: on the passages it is drawn on, the key it reads is the same key at all forty-eight of its hypotheses and the metre scores every barline identically. The fourth axis then cannot be ranked at all until each reading is measured against its own null, because a mixture changes the ruler and not only the answer.

harmony · Progression
Where a bar of 25 and a bar of 9 first disagree. The additive metre 2+2+2+3+2+2+2+3+2+2+3 — 25 units, an onset at the head of every group — with the accents it predicts drawn above the accents predicted by reading it as a repeating bar of 9, which is the cut of it that agrees longest. The two rows are identical for 24 consecutive steps and differ for the first time at step 25, where the shorter reading expects an accent and the metre does not supply one. Nothing before that step distinguishes the two hypotheses, so a listener who has not heard 25 consecutive steps has no evidence either way — whatever they are disposed to hear.

A twenty-five is a nine until its last unit

Every account of long additive metres says they are heard as groups of shorter ones, and the metre-induction model had never been pointed at the claim. Pointed at it, the model does not prefer the group — it prefers the long bar outright, and would go on preferring it more the longer anybody listened. What it cannot do is start: the evidence that separates a bar of twenty-five from a bar of nine does not exist until the whole bar has been heard, and at the tempo an unequal metre is best played at the psychological present holds sixteen units.

rhythm · Additive metre
A note on the downbeat costs 1.89 bits and one on the offbeat 5.70. What each position in a bar of 4/4 asks of a reader, by two routes. The solid bar counts where the notes of this collection's own three tunes actually fall — 28, 2, 26, 4, 28, 0, 16, 0 notes at the 8 positions — and takes minus the log of the frequency. The rule across each bar is the same quantity from the stated metrical weights, 1, 0.15, 0.5, 0.15, 0.85, 0.15, 0.5, 0.15, normalised and logged the same way. Nothing makes the two agree. They put the eight positions in the same order, and they price the tunes' own rhythm a fifth of a bit apart — while differing by more than a whole bit about the quaver after the downbeat, which two notes in a hundred and four ever use. The two positions these tunes never touch at all are drawn at the floor, which is the same floor the melodic measure gives an interval nobody plays. A weight was always a probability waiting to be read as one.

Where the note is costs more than which note it is

Thirteen earlier essays measure a page, and the three that price a reader price only its pitches — every line they measure is a run of equal notes. A metrical weight normalised by its own sum is a probability, and minus its logarithm is bits — the same substitution made earlier for intervals. Measured over the tunes used throughout it comes out at 2.23 bits a note against the pitches' 1.89, so the larger half of a reader's load is where the note is.

rhythm · Notation
How often the metre, the chords and their product find the barline, chords at 1. Constructed passages of four bars of eight quavers, 100 at each setting, with the barline at the first slot. Rhythm regularity is how much likelier a note is on a strong slot than a weak one; chord regularity is how much likelier a note is to be a tone of its bar's chord than a random scale tone. rhythm 0: metre finds it 10%, chords find it 41%, product finds it 16%; rhythm 0.25: metre finds it 34%, chords find it 35%, product finds it 56%; rhythm 0.5: metre finds it 49%, chords find it 21%, product finds it 66%; rhythm 0.75: metre finds it 50%, chords find it 17%, product finds it 56%; rhythm 1: metre finds it 50%, chords find it 11%, product finds it 45%.

The chords never move the barline

Every hypothesis the joint search had drawn was one bar long, and on one bar with a note in every slot the metre cannot choose a barline at all. Four bars with rests in them make the barline a decision the metre and the chords both have an opinion about, and the prediction was that the chords would move the barline more often than the barline moves the chords. It is the other way round, completely: whenever the two prefer different barlines the search takes the metre's, on up to 72 per cent of passages, and in fifteen hundred passages the chords never once move it. What the chords decide is the one thing the metre cannot see — whether the bar starts on the downbeat or half a bar later — and they decide it right a little over two times in three at best.

harmony · Progression
The product and the sum of standard scores, finding the barline, chords at 1. Constructed passages of four bars of eight quavers, 100 at each setting, with the barline at the first slot. Rhythm regularity is how much likelier a note is on a strong slot than a weak one; chord regularity is how much likelier a note is to be a tone of its bar's chord than a random scale tone. rhythm 0: product finds it 16%, sum of z finds it 22%, metre finds it 10%, chords, z 35%; rhythm 0.25: product finds it 56%, sum of z finds it 58%, metre finds it 34%, chords, z 38%; rhythm 0.5: product finds it 66%, sum of z finds it 61%, metre finds it 49%, chords, z 19%; rhythm 0.75: product finds it 56%, sum of z finds it 58%, metre finds it 50%, chords, z 14%; rhythm 1: product finds it 45%, sum of z finds it 48%, metre finds it 50%, chords, z 12%.

The chords are a weak witness to the barline

Scaled by its own range, the metre overrules the chords every time the two disagree about where a bar begins. The obvious repair is to score each reading against its own chance — the metre against the same number of notes placed at random, the chords against the passage's notes shuffled across its bars — and add the standard scores. It changes very little: the search finds the barline within six points of where the product found it, and the chords gain the power to move the barline only on passages whose rhythm says nothing, where random notes move it nearly as often. The null's real result is the size of the two witnesses. At the written barline the metre stands up to 5.9 standard deviations above chance, and the chords, with every note a tone of its bar's chord, stand 1.55 above it at best.

harmony · Progression
An accent moves the longest separable bar from 16 units to 18, and no further. For every bar length from 9 to 25 units, over all 1820 arrangements of twos and threes that are not a repeat of a shorter bar, the fewest and the most consecutive steps before the whole bar beats every shorter cut of it. 9: onsets alone 9 to 14, long beat predicted 7 to 12, downbeat predicted 7 to 8; 10: onsets alone 10 to 13, long beat predicted 8 to 11, downbeat predicted 8 to 9; 11: onsets alone 11 to 18, long beat predicted 9 to 16, downbeat predicted 9 to 10; 12: onsets alone 12 to 17, long beat predicted 10 to 15, downbeat predicted 10 to 11; 13: onsets alone 13 to 22, long beat predicted 11 to 20, downbeat predicted 11 to 12; 14: onsets alone 14 to 23, long beat predicted 12 to 21, downbeat predicted 12 to 13; 15: onsets alone 15 to 26, long beat predicted 13 to 24, downbeat predicted 13 to 14; 16: onsets alone 16 to 25, long beat predicted 14 to 23, downbeat predicted 14 to 15; 17: onsets alone 17 to 30, long beat predicted 15 to 28, downbeat predicted 15 to 16; 18: onsets alone 18 to 29, long beat predicted 16 to 27, downbeat predicted 16 to 17; 19: onsets alone 19 to 34, long beat predicted 17 to 32, downbeat predicted 17 to 18; 20: onsets alone 20 to 35, long beat predicted 18 to 33, downbeat predicted 18 to 19; 21: onsets alone 21 to 38, long beat predicted 19 to 36, downbeat predicted 19 to 20; 22: onsets alone 22 to 37, long beat predicted 20 to 35, downbeat predicted 20 to 21; 23: onsets alone 23 to 42, long beat predicted 21 to 40, downbeat predicted 21 to 22; 24: onsets alone 24 to 41, long beat predicted 22 to 39, downbeat predicted 22 to 23; 25: onsets alone 25 to 46, long beat predicted 23 to 44, downbeat predicted 23 to 24. A present of 3.5 seconds holds 16.0 steps at 218 milliseconds a step, so the longest bar some arrangement of which separates inside it is 16 units on onsets alone, 18 with the long beat predicted and 18 with the downbeat predicted.

The accent buys two units, however loud it is

A twenty-five cannot be told from a group of shorter bars on its onsets until more steps have gone by than a listener's present holds, and the obvious objection is that nobody plays an aksak bar as bare onsets: the long beat is louder, and the bar's first beat is marked. So how loud does an accent have to be? The question has a surprising answer. Loudness is not the variable. The existing accent cue changes nothing, and delays the answer where it changes anything. An accent that a reading has to predict works at any strength at all, and at no strength does more than a fixed amount: on the long beat it buys the two steps of a short beat, and on the downbeat it takes every arrangement to one floor — the bar less its last beat — which no cue carried by the notes can break. The longest bar that can be heard as one moves from sixteen units to eighteen.

rhythm · Additive metre
Four bars read by where the chords change, barline by barline. A constructed passage of four bars of eight quavers, its barline at the first slot and its chords C, F, Em, Dm. Notes: slot 1 C, slot 3 E, slot 4 G, slot 5 E, slot 6 C, slot 9 C, slot 10 C, slot 11 F, slot 13 A, slot 16 C, slot 17 B, slot 19 B, slot 20 E, slot 21 E, slot 24 G, slot 25 F, slot 29 F. For each of the eight places the barline could fall: as written metre, z 3.97, chords, z 2.00, change, z 4.30, metre + change, z 8.27; 1 quaver late metre, z -2.45, chords, z 2.14, change, z -0.87, metre + change, z -3.32; 2 quavers late metre, z -1.38, chords, z 2.15, change, z -0.54, metre + change, z -1.93; 3 quavers late metre, z -0.31, chords, z -0.27, change, z -2.64, metre + change, z -2.95; 4 quavers late metre, z 3.97, chords, z -1.63, change, z -4.30, metre + change, z -0.33; 5 quavers late metre, z -2.45, chords, z 1.27, change, z 0.87, metre + change, z -1.58; 6 quavers late metre, z -1.38, chords, z 1.18, change, z 0.54, metre + change, z -0.84; 7 quavers late metre, z -0.31, chords, z 1.05, change, z 2.64, metre + change, z 2.32. Best metre, z: as written and 4 late. Best chords, z: 2 late. Best change, z: as written. Best metre + change, z: as written.

The chords mark the barline by changing there

Read bar by bar, the chords stood barely above chance at the barline and broke the metre's half-bar tie two times in three at best. Read instead by where they change — how different the chords are across a candidate's barlines against how different they are across the middle of its bars — the same notes break the tie right on 81 to 96 per cent of passages, and added to the metre they find the barline on up to 89 per cent against 61. The weakness was the question the old reading asked, not the harmony.

harmony · Progression
A listener who knows every metre recognises none of them inside the present. For every bar length from nine units to twenty-five, the fewest and the most steps from the downbeat before every other one of the 1820 arrangements of twos and threes has been contradicted by the stream, on onsets alone, with the long beats accented and with the downbeat accented, against the 16 steps a present of 3.5 seconds holds. onsets alone: recognised within the present for 0 of 1820; long-beat accent: recognised within the present for 0 of 1820; downbeat accent: recognised within the present for 85 of 1820. The dashed line is the present.

Knowing every metre is slower than knowing none

A long aksak bar cannot be told from its shorter cuts by induction before one step into its last beat, and no accent carried by the notes moves that floor. The obvious escape is a listener who knows the repertoire and recognises the metre instead. Recognition among all 1,820 arrangements of twos and threes never beats the floor, is never quicker than induction, and is slower for half the metres: a nine induced in 9 steps is recognised in 27. What breaks the floor is a small repertoire that leaves out the metre's own longest cut — with the cut known, no repertoire of any size does.

rhythm · Additive metre
Come in part-way with the downbeat accented, and no bar of sixteen units or more is recognised inside the present. For every bar length from nine units to twenty-five, the fewest and the most steps a listener who knows every arrangement of twos and threes needs to recognise the metre and where its bar begins, with the downbeat accented: coming in at a sample of steps inside the bar, against hearing it from its written downbeat. On onsets alone, or with the long beats accented, a metre entered part-way is never told from its rotations. 9: from inside the bar 10 to 17, 16 of 20 inside the present; from the downbeat 10 to 10; 10: from inside the bar 11 to 19, 12 of 20 inside the present; from the downbeat 11 to 11; 11: from inside the bar 12 to 21, 9 of 18 inside the present; from the downbeat 12 to 12; 12: from inside the bar 13 to 23, 8 of 24 inside the present; from the downbeat 13 to 13; 13: from inside the bar 14 to 25, 8 of 28 inside the present; from the downbeat 14 to 14; 14: from inside the bar 15 to 27, 4 of 28 inside the present; from the downbeat 15 to 15; 15: from inside the bar 16 to 29, 4 of 32 inside the present; from the downbeat 16 to 16; 16: from inside the bar 17 to 31, 0 of 32 inside the present; from the downbeat 17 to 17; 17: from inside the bar 18 to 32, 0 of 36 inside the present; from the downbeat 18 to 18; 18: from inside the bar 19 to 32, 0 of 36 inside the present; from the downbeat 19 to 19; 19: from inside the bar 20 to 37, 0 of 40 inside the present; from the downbeat 20 to 20; 20: from inside the bar 21 to 35, 0 of 40 inside the present; from the downbeat 21 to 21; 21: from inside the bar 22 to 40, 0 of 44 inside the present; from the downbeat 22 to 22; 22: from inside the bar 23 to 39, 0 of 44 inside the present; from the downbeat 23 to 23; 23: from inside the bar 24 to 44, 0 of 48 inside the present; from the downbeat 23 to 24; 24: from inside the bar 23 to 39, 0 of 48 inside the present; from the downbeat 23 to 25; 25: from inside the bar 22 to 44, 0 of 52 inside the present; from the downbeat 23 to 25. In all, 61 of 590 entries are recognised within the 16 steps of a 3.5-second present.

A dancer who comes in late needs the downbeat marked

Every window for recognising an aksak metre so far started at its written downbeat. A dancer joining a dance already going has not heard the downbeat, and the arithmetic of that is blunt: a metre entered part-way is, onset for onset, each of its own rotations heard from their downbeats, and the rotations are metres too — 2+2+3 and 3+2+2 are counted differently. So on onsets, and with the long beats accented, no metre is ever told from its rotations. Only an accented downbeat tells them apart, and with it a listener who knows thirty metres recognises 54 per cent of them inside the present from a random entry, against 1 per cent without.

rhythm · Additive metre
The change reading follows the chords, not the bar. How far above the other candidates the true barline stands, in standard units, for the reading that scores how much the pitch-class content changes at each candidate — at three harmonic rhythms. At 2 chords a bar the margin is 0.12 and the reading finds the barline 12 per cent of the time; At 1 chord a bar the margin is 1.66 and the reading finds the barline 42 per cent of the time; At a chord every two bars the margin is 0.47 and the reading finds the barline 27 per cent of the time, against a chance rate of 13 per cent. The passages read earlier all changed chord once a bar, which is the middle column and the only one where the reading has anything. Two chords a bar puts a change at the half-bar as well and the reading cannot tell the two apart; a chord every two bars leaves half the barlines with no change at all and the margin halves exactly.

The change reading follows the chords, not the bar

Every passage read until now changes chord exactly at the barline, which is the one harmonic rhythm at which 'the chords change here' and 'the bar starts here' are the same sentence. Pull them apart and the reading goes with the chords: at one chord a bar it stands 1.52 standard units above the other candidates and finds the barline half the time, at two chords a bar it stands 0.01 above them and is at chance, and at a chord every two bars its margin is exactly half — because half the barlines then carry no change at all.

harmony · Progression
Asked for the rate, it answers a multiple of it. The change reading asked its own question — what period do the chords change at — over passages built at three harmonic rhythms, with its standardised score for each candidate period. Given 2 chords a bar it recovers the rate 33 per cent of the time and answers too slow 65; Given 1 chord a bar it recovers the rate 58 per cent of the time and answers too slow 38; Given a chord every two bars it recovers the rate 93 per cent of the time and answers too slow 0. It never errs fast in the way it errs slow, and the reason is structural: a chord change every four slots also produces a change at every eighth slot, so a slower grid inherits a faster rate's evidence and a faster grid cannot inherit a slower one's. That ambiguity is why the reading looked like a barline detector in the first place — the bar is a multiple of every harmonic rhythm that fits inside it.

Asked for the rate, it answers a multiple

A reading that follows the chord rate rather than the bar can be asked what the rate is, and the shape of its errors is the whole of why it looked like a barline detector. Given two chords a bar it returns the right period a third of the time and something slower two thirds; given a chord every two bars it is right nine times in ten. It errs slow and essentially never fast, because a change every four slots also falls on every eighth slot and a slower grid inherits a faster rate's evidence — which is the same asymmetry that makes a pitch detector report an octave too low.

harmony · Progression
The content errs slow and the bass errs fast. Passages of eight bars built at three harmonic rhythms, each with a bass that states every new chord's root and moves to another chord tone on a beat 50 per cent of the time. Two readings are asked the chord rate: one from how much the pitch-class content changes across a grid, one from how completely the bass's moves land on it. At two chords a bar the content reading names the rate 63 per cent of the time, too fast 0 and too slow 37; the bass reading 100, 0 and 0. At one chord a bar the content reading names the rate 67 per cent of the time, too fast 0 and too slow 33; the bass reading 18, 80 and 2. At a chord every two bars the content reading names the rate 98 per cent of the time, too fast 2 and too slow 0; the bass reading 0, 100 and 0. The two readings miss in opposite directions and at opposite ends of the tempo range: the content reading at fast harmonic rhythms, by naming a multiple, and the bass reading at slow ones, by naming its own arpeggiation.

The bass errs fast where the content errs slow

Asked how often the chords change, a reading built on pitch-class content names a slower multiple and never a faster rate. Give the passage a bass that states each new root and moves between chord tones inside a chord, and a reading built on the bass's moves errs the other way: it names a faster grid and never a slower one. At two chords a bar the bass is right every time; at a chord every two bars it is never right. Six ways of combining the two readings each trade one end of the range for the other.

harmony · Progression
Holding the bass through one mid-bar change in six finds the barline five times in six. Passages of eight bars at two chords a bar, with the bass arpeggiating on 50 per cent of its beats, and each barline reading's share of passages it places correctly, against the share of mid-bar chord changes voiced over the bass already sounding. 0% held (convention strength 0): metre then bass 50%, bass alone 13%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 10%; 4% held (convention strength 0.1): metre then bass 62%, bass alone 33%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 10%; 6% held (convention strength 0.2): metre then bass 68%, bass alone 41%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 15%; 9% held (convention strength 0.3): metre then bass 75%, bass alone 50%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 18%; 15% held (convention strength 0.4): metre then bass 81%, bass alone 66%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 13%; 16% held (convention strength 0.5): metre then bass 85%, bass alone 71%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 14%; 20% held (convention strength 0.6): metre then bass 86%, bass alone 74%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 11%; 26% held (convention strength 0.7): metre then bass 90%, bass alone 82%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 13%; 27% held (convention strength 0.8): metre then bass 91%, bass alone 82%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 13%; 28% held (convention strength 0.9): metre then bass 95%, bass alone 89%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 10%; 33% held (convention strength 1): metre then bass 96%, bass alone 90%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 10%. The metre ties the barline with the half-bar and the chord changes are at chance, since the chords change at both; the bass's holds are the only evidence that separates them.

A bass that holds through a change marks the barline

At two chords a bar the chords change on the barline and on the half-bar alike, so a reading of where they change is at chance, and the metre ties the two. The bass has one more piece of evidence: a change inside the bar can be voiced over the note already sounding, and a change on the barline is voiced over its root. Hold the bass through one mid-bar change in six and the metre and bass together place the barline in 85 per cent of eight-bar passages; one in three, 97. The convention cannot be stronger than that, and the chord changes, asked first, only get in the way.

harmony · Progression
As the bass stops standing still, what marks the barline stops being its motion and becomes its note. Passages of eight bars at one chord a bar, and how often each reading places the barline, against how often the bass moves to another tone of the chord on a crotchet. Every reading is the metre's own candidates with one witness breaking its tie. bass moving on 0% of crotchets: moves 100%, root 50%, surer of the two 100%, metre alone 50%; bass moving on 13% of crotchets: moves 100%, root 94%, surer of the two 100%, metre alone 50%; bass moving on 25% of crotchets: moves 100%, root 99%, surer of the two 100%, metre alone 50%; bass moving on 38% of crotchets: moves 99%, root 100%, surer of the two 100%, metre alone 50%; bass moving on 50% of crotchets: moves 95%, root 100%, surer of the two 100%, metre alone 50%; bass moving on 63% of crotchets: moves 88%, root 100%, surer of the two 100%, metre alone 50%; bass moving on 75% of crotchets: moves 77%, root 100%, surer of the two 100%, metre alone 50%; bass moving on 88% of crotchets: moves 54%, root 100%, surer of the two 100%, metre alone 50%; bass moving on 100% of crotchets: moves 20%, root 100%, surer of the two 94%, metre alone 50%. A bass that never moves inside the chord moves only at chord changes, which at this rate are barlines, so the move reading is certain and the root sounds throughout the bar and says nothing; a bass that moves on every crotchet moves everywhere and sounds the root only where the chord has just arrived.

A walking bass marks the bar by the note it is on

The reading that finds a barline from where the bass moves collapses to twenty per cent when the bass moves on every crotchet, and the bass the last essay called busiest moved twice a bar, because its beat was the half-bar. Given one that really walks, the same computation with sounds the chord's root in place of moves rises from nothing to a whole note a bar exactly as the other falls, and the two are equal at a bass moving on three crotchets in eight. Neither places a barline alone: the root is still sounding on the quaver after it. The metre, which cannot tell a barline from a half-bar, tells it from the quaver after it at once.

harmony · Progression
Two chords a bar over a moving bass: every witness there is, at chance together. Passages of eight bars at two chords a bar, with the chords always voiced over their own roots, and how often each reading places the barline against how often the bass moves inside the chord. 0%: metre alone 50%, with the moves 50%, with the root 50%, with both 50%; 13%: metre alone 50%, with the moves 49%, with the root 50%, with both 49%; 25%: metre alone 50%, with the moves 49%, with the root 50%, with both 49%; 38%: metre alone 50%, with the moves 49%, with the root 50%, with both 49%; 50%: metre alone 49%, with the moves 53%, with the root 49%, with both 54%; 63%: metre alone 50%, with the moves 54%, with the root 50%, with both 54%; 75%: metre alone 50%, with the moves 48%, with the root 50%, with both 48%; 88%: metre alone 50%, with the moves 51%, with the root 50%, with both 51%; 100%: metre alone 50%, with the moves 51%, with the root 50%, with both 51%. The metre ties the barline with the half-bar because both carry the same strong slots; the chords change at both; the bass states a root at both and moves between both. Nothing in the passage distinguishes them.

A texture in which nothing says where the bar begins

Two chords a bar over a bass that moves inside the chord is the one arrangement in which every witness this account has stands together at the metre's coin toss. The metre ties the barline with the half-bar, the chords change at both, and the bass states a root at both and walks between both — at every busyness, and whichever question the bass is asked. The only thing that breaks the symmetry is the voicing convention, and what it is worth falls from 98 per cent to 90 as the bass fills in, not because fewer changes can be held but because the motion around them is evidence for nothing. Chasing five points of residue above the toss found a defect that had been flattering the reading since it was written.

harmony · Progression
The leap at the barline is not in the harmony: it is in which octave the root is played in. How often the size of the bass's motion places the barline, at one chord a bar over eight bars, against how often the bass moves inside the chord, under two realisations of the same pitch classes in a register. Roots at the bottom of the compass: 100% at 0%, 100% at 13%, 100% at 25%, 99% at 38%, 96% at 50%, 95% at 63%, 93% at 75%, 92% at 88%, 90% at 100%. Least motion: 100%, 100%, 96%, 91%, 83%, 69%, 52%, 32%, 20%. Also drawn, the reading of whether the bass moved at all: 100%, 100%, 99%, 99%, 93%, 89%, 70%, 54%, 20%. The two realisations use the same notes in the same order and differ only in which octave each is played in.

The leap at the barline is a fact about register

A bass leaps to a root at the barline and steps inside the bar, and no reading of pitch classes can see it — so the essay that named it recorded it as a limit. Given octaves and the size of every motion, it is worth nothing: realised at least motion the reading tracks whether the bass moved at all and ends 0.87 semitones on the wrong side of zero, because a line that always takes the nearest octave has no leaps to take. Play a stated root at the bottom of the compass instead, and the same sixteen notes in the same order turn a margin of minus 1.67 semitones into plus 1.67 and hold at 90 per cent where the move reading has fallen to 20. The barline is not where the bass moves furthest. It is where the bass goes back down.

harmony · Progression
A melody finds the barline the harmony cannot, and only by preferring the downbeat for its long notes. At two chords a bar over a walking bass, eight bars, how often the length of the melody's notes breaks the metre's tie and places the barline, against the share of long notes that fall on the downbeat rather than the half-bar, for melodies with a long note in a quarter, a half and all of their bars. 25% of bars long: 46% at 50%, 53% at 60%, 61% at 70%, 71% at 80%, 78% at 90%, 85% at 100%; 50% of bars long: 48% at 50%, 61% at 60%, 76% at 70%, 91% at 80%, 95% at 90%, 97% at 100%; 100% of bars long: 47% at 50%, 74% at 60%, 85% at 70%, 97% at 80%, 100% at 90%, 100% at 100%. The bass's readings, whether it moves and whether it sounds the root, average 50% over the same passages. At even odds the melody is no better than the metre alone, whatever the number of long notes.

A melody marks the barline by where it lingers

At two chords a bar over a walking bass, every harmonic witness stands at the metre's coin toss about where the bar begins. Give the passage a melody with a habit — long notes that prefer the downbeat — and the barline comes back: with a long note in half the bars and four in five of them on the downbeat, in 91 per cent of passages. The count of long notes barely matters; the preference is everything, and at even odds no number of long notes helps. A phrase end held through its bar is the strongest single cue. And a listener who adds the bass's readings to the melody's does worse than one who ignores the bass.

harmony · Progression
A syncopated melody is heard against the bar only if its phrases land on it. At one chord a bar over a walking bass, a melody whose long notes all fall on the half-bar, with a long note in half its bars and in all of them: how often the melody and bass together place the barline (solid) and the melody alone (dashed), against the share of two-bar phrase ends held through their last bar from its downbeat. a long note in 50% of bars: 0% held, together 21%, melody 0%; 10% held, together 36%, melody 20%; 25% held, together 67%, melody 58%; 50% held, together 86%, melody 84%; 75% held, together 97%, melody 97%; 100% held, together 100%, melody 100%. a long note in 100% of bars: 0% held, together 21%, melody 0%; 10% held, together 23%, melody 4%; 25% held, together 45%, melody 29%; 50% held, together 77%, melody 70%; 75% held, together 96%, melody 95%; 100% held, together 100%, melody 100%.

A syncopated melody needs its phrases to land

Put a melody whose long notes all fall on the half-bar over a harmony that changes once a bar and a walking bass, and a listener adding up the evidence hears the bar begin in the wrong place three times in four. The harmony knows where the bar is, but only through one witness: the bass's root votes for the barline in every passage, and the bass's motion never does — a walking bass lands on each new root by step, so it moves less at the barline than inside the bar. One syncopated voice ties the root, and the motion breaks the tie its way. What rescues the barline is not the harmony but the melody's own phrase ends: hold half of them from the downbeat and the reading finds the bar in 86 per cent of passages.

harmony · Progression
With a drum in the introduction, 2 bars of ground are enough — for a listener who remembers. At one chord a bar over a walking bass, a melody whose long notes all fall on the half-bar (50 per cent of its bars hold one), preceded by a stated number of bars of the harmony and bass alone with a drum on every downbeat of the introduction: the share of the melody's eight bars that a listener reading bar by bar hears against the written barline, for five listeners who differ in how much confidence they can bank. no memory: 0 bars 47%, 1 bars 46%, 2 bars 46%, 3 bars 46%, 4 bars 45%, 6 bars 46%, 8 bars 45%, 12 bars 45%, 16 bars 46%. banks 2 votes: 0 bars 45%, 1 bars 57%, 2 bars 58%, 3 bars 57%, 4 bars 56%, 6 bars 56%, 8 bars 55%, 12 bars 56%, 16 bars 58%. banks 4 votes: 0 bars 44%, 1 bars 68%, 2 bars 79%, 3 bars 79%, 4 bars 76%, 6 bars 77%, 8 bars 77%, 12 bars 76%, 16 bars 79%. banks 8 votes: 0 bars 44%, 1 bars 71%, 2 bars 90%, 3 bars 95%, 4 bars 95%, 6 bars 95%, 8 bars 96%, 12 bars 95%, 16 bars 97%. never forgets: 0 bars 44%, 1 bars 71%, 2 bars 90%, 3 bars 96%, 4 bars 99%, 6 bars 100%, 8 bars 100%, 12 bars 100%, 16 bars 100%. A listener with no memory stays near 47 per cent however much ground is heard; one who never forgets goes from 44 with none to 90 after two bars and 100 after twelve.

Two bars of drum hold the barline; a dozen bars of bass do not

A listener who settles where the bar begins and then holds it hears a syncopated tune against the bar only if the ground before it built enough confidence to spend. Read bar by bar, a walking bass under one chord a bar is worth less than half a vote a bar for the barline, and a syncopated bar takes an eighth of a vote back, so a tune needs about twelve bars of that ground to be heard against the bar nine times in ten. A drum on the downbeat makes each bar of ground worth a vote and a half, and two bars are then enough — but only for a listener who can bank more than four votes of confidence.

harmony · Progression
A listener who weights its witnesses by their record needs 8 bars of walking bass, not 12. A syncopated melody over one chord a bar and a walking bass, preceded by a stated number of bars of the harmony and bass alone: the share of the melody's eight bars heard against the written barline by a listener who never forgets, counting every witness's vote alike, and by one who weights each witness by how often it has agreed with the reading it held. Solid: a long note in half the melody's bars; dashed: in every bar. Half the bars, votes alike: 0 bars 40%, 1 bar 49%, 2 bars 57%, 3 bars 63%, 4 bars 71%, 6 bars 77%, 8 bars 83%, 12 bars 93%, 16 bars 97%. Weighted: 0 39%, 1 59%, 2 71%, 3 76%, 4 83%, 6 88%, 8 92%, 12 95%, 16 94%. Every bar, votes alike: 0 6%, 1 13%, 2 19%, 3 27%, 4 34%, 6 48%, 8 56%, 12 72%, 16 85%. Weighted: 0 6%, 1 38%, 2 54%, 3 66%, 4 74%, 6 85%, 8 90%, 12 93%, 16 98%. Nine bars in ten are reached after 12 bars of ground counting alike and 8 weighting; for the tune that syncopates every bar, after more than sixteen and 8. Reading a reliably wrong witness backwards instead of ignoring it changes no value by more than two points.

A listener who weights its witnesses needs eight bars of bass, not twelve

A syncopated tune over a walking bass needed about twelve bars of ground before a listener with a memory heard it against the bar nine times in ten, with every witness given one vote a bar. Let the listener weight each witness by how often it has agreed with the reading it holds and the root earns a second vote, the bass's motion loses half of one, and the syncopation loses almost all of its. Eight bars are then enough, a tune that syncopates every bar becomes hearable against the bar at all, and reading the syncopation backwards buys nothing that ignoring it does not.

harmony · Progression
A listener who arrives knowing the style needs no introduction. A syncopated melody over one chord a bar and a walking bass, after a stated number of bars of the harmony and bass alone: the share of the melody's eight bars heard against the barline by a listener who never forgets and counts every vote alike, by one who learns each witness's reliability from nothing, and by one who arrives already crediting the bass's motion and the melody's long notes at a coin toss — the habits of a style in which the bass walks and the tune syncopates — and learns from there. every vote alike: 0 bars 40%, 1 bar 49%, 2 bars 57%, 3 bars 63%, 4 bars 71%, 6 bars 77%, 8 bars 83%, 12 bars 93%, 16 bars 97%. learning from no habits: 0 bars 39%, 1 bar 59%, 2 bars 71%, 3 bars 76%, 4 bars 83%, 6 bars 88%, 8 bars 92%, 12 bars 95%, 16 bars 94%. arriving with the style's habits: 0 bars 93%, 1 bar 97%, 2 bars 99%, 3 bars 99%, 4 bars 100%, 6 bars 100%, 8 bars 100%, 12 bars 100%, 16 bars 100%.

A listener who knows the style needs no introduction

A listener who weights each witness to the barline by its record needed eight bars of walking bass before a syncopated tune was heard against the bar nine times in ten, and with no introduction at all it learned the syncopation's lesson instead. Finer records — one for each side a witness takes, one for each section — change nothing. What changes everything is arriving with the style's habits: a listener who already gives the bass's motion and the melody's long notes no vote hears the tune against the bar 93 per cent of the time from its first bar, and 94 per cent for a tune that syncopates every bar. The root need not be trusted more. The others need to be trusted less.

harmony · Progression
A listener choosing between two styles hears the syncopated tune later than one who never chooses. A syncopated melody over one chord a bar and a walking bass, after a stated number of bars of the harmony and bass alone: the share of the melody's eight bars heard against the barline by a learning listener with no habits (every witness credited at three in four, which is also the habit of a style whose tunes mark the bar), by one arriving with the habits of a style whose tunes syncopate (the bass's motion and the melody's long notes credited at a coin toss), and by one who keeps both sets of habits and weighs them by how well each has predicted the votes heard so far. no habits: 0 bars 39%, 1 bar 59%, 2 bars 71%, 3 bars 76%, 4 bars 83%, 6 bars 88%, 8 bars 92%, 12 bars 95%, 16 bars 94%. the syncopating style's habits: 0 bars 93%, 1 bar 97%, 2 bars 99%, 3 bars 99%, 4 bars 100%, 6 bars 100%, 8 bars 100%, 12 bars 100%, 16 bars 100%. both, weighed by their record: 0 bars 67%, 1 bar 82%, 2 bars 91%, 3 bars 92%, 4 bars 95%, 6 bars 97%, 8 bars 98%, 12 bars 99%, 16 bars 98%.

The habit worth bringing is to distrust the tune

A listener who arrives with a style's habits — the bass's motion and the melody's long notes credited at a coin toss — hears a syncopated tune against the bar from its first bar. But a listener does not know the style in advance. Give it two sets of habits, one for tunes that mark the bar and one for tunes that syncopate, and let it weigh them by how well each predicts what it hears: it does better than a listener with no habits and far worse than one who simply knows, and it becomes sure of the style in fewer than one passage in ten. The reason is that the evidence runs one way. A tune that marks the bar never testifies against the habit of distrusting tunes, so the habit that serves every style is the syncopating one, kept always.

harmony · Progression
Which witness lies when the bass moves its root. Over a tune whose long notes mark the bar, the share of the melody's bars in which each witness votes for the true barline (up) or for the half-bar (down), under a walking bass that states each root on the barline, one that anticipates it by a quaver and ties it over, and one that puts the fifth on the barline and the root at the half-bar. a bass stating the root: root 51 for, 0 against; motion 0 for, 13 against; melody 51 for, 0 against. the root anticipated: root 50 for, 0 against; motion 0 for, 100 against; melody 51 for, 0 against. the root arriving late: root 0 for, 100 against; motion 0 for, 10 against; melody 51 for, 0 against. Anticipated, the root still sounds on the barline, tied over, and still votes for it; the bass's motion, which now lands a quaver early and moves again at the half-bar, votes against it in every bar. Late, the root votes against the bar every time.

A late root is believed because the record is kept by the reading

The habit worth bringing to a tune turned out to be trusting the bass's root and doubting everything else. A bass that anticipates the next chord does not break that habit — the root is still tied across the barline, and it is the bass's motion that lies. A bass that puts the root at the half-bar does break it, and nothing a listener learns can repair it, because each witness is judged by whether it agrees with the reading, and the reading was made by the liar.

harmony · Progression
Two honest bars are enough for a listener that can change its habits. Two bars of ground and eight of a tune that marks the bar, over a walking bass whose root arrives late in every bar, with a drum on the downbeat of the passage's first bars and silent after: the share of the tune's bars heard against the barline by four listeners, against how many bars the drum plays. A listener who no habits: 0 0, 1 0, 2 5, 3 37, 4 58, 6 72, 8 74, 10 74. A listener who trusts the root, doubts the rest: 0 0, 1 0, 2 0, 3 6, 4 12, 6 25, 8 38, 10 50. A listener who doubts the root: 0 74, 1 98, 2 100, 3 100, 4 100, 6 100, 8 100, 10 100. A listener who chooses among all three: 0 0, 1 10, 2 93, 3 100, 4 100, 6 100, 8 100, 10 100. A record scores each vote against the reading held when it is cast. One stroke forms a reading that the next bar of root erases; two leave it standing when the tune enters, and from then on every bar scores the root as the witness that disagrees. A listener crediting the root and the drum equally is held at a tie by any amount of drum alone.

Two honest bars convict a lying root

A bass that states its root late defeats every listener who learns from agreement, because the reading forms before any honest witness speaks. Give the passage a drum on its first downbeats and the same record that ratified the liar convicts it — but only a listener holding a habit that doubts the root can act on the verdict. Two strokes are enough for that listener, for as long as the tune lasts. One is not, and no amount of drum is enough for a listener that credits the root and the drum alike.

harmony · Progression
An honest drum that comes late is too late, however long it plays. Two bars of ground and twenty-four of a tune that marks the bar, over a walking bass whose root arrives late in every bar, with an honest drum on every downbeat from a stated bar to the end: the share of passages a listener choosing among three sets of habits ends on the true barline, for four starting credits for the drum. Credited 0.75: from bar 1 100%, from bar 2 0%, from bar 3 0%, from bar 4 0%, from bar 5 0%, from bar 6 0%, from bar 7 0%, from bar 9 0%. Credited 0.9: from bar 1 100%, from bar 2 99%, from bar 3 29%, from bar 4 0%, from bar 5 0%, from bar 6 0%, from bar 7 0%, from bar 9 0%. Credited 0.95: from bar 1 100%, from bar 2 100%, from bar 3 88%, from bar 4 0%, from bar 5 0%, from bar 6 0%, from bar 7 0%, from bar 9 0%. Credited 0.99: from bar 1 100%, from bar 2 100%, from bar 3 100%, from bar 4 88%, from bar 5 0%, from bar 6 0%, from bar 7 0%, from bar 9 0%. At the credit the drum has always had, three in four, a drum that misses the first bar never recovers the reading, though it then plays twenty-five bars running. Each bar the late root is believed before the drum arrives raises the credit it would need; at 0.99, ninety-nine to one, the drum must still start by the fourth bar.

An honest drum has to come first

Two strokes of an honest drum at the very start of a passage protect a listener from a bass whose root arrives late in every bar. The same two strokes a bar later do nothing at all, and neither does a drum that then plays every downbeat to the end. A listener that keeps a record of its witnesses scores the late drum against the reading the root has already made, and convicts it within two bars. Every bar the lie is believed first multiplies the trust the drum would need, and by the seventh bar no trust short of certainty is enough.

harmony · Progression
A break lets a late drum win only if the listener comes out of it holding no reading and almost no record. Two bars of ground and twenty-four of a tune that marks the bar, over a walking bass whose root is late in every bar, the choosing listener, and an honest drum on every downbeat from bar 5, 9 or 13 to the end, entering after a break at which the listener keeps a stated share of its witnesses' records. Solid: the break also wipes its reading. From bar 5: 96% keeping 0, 96% keeping 0.02, 96% keeping 0.05, 91% keeping 0.1, 46% keeping 0.2, 42% keeping 0.3, 30% keeping 0.5, 8% keeping 0.75, 7% keeping 1. From bar 9: 95% keeping 0, 92% keeping 0.02, 47% keeping 0.05, 43% keeping 0.1, 11% keeping 0.2, 2% keeping 0.3, 0% keeping 0.5, 0% keeping 0.75, 0% keeping 1. From bar 13: 93% keeping 0, 57% keeping 0.02, 44% keeping 0.05, 10% keeping 0.1, 1% keeping 0.2, 0% keeping 0.3, 0% keeping 0.5, 0% keeping 0.75, 0% keeping 1. Dashed, on the floor: the same breaks leaving half the reading's margin, where the drum wins no passage at any share of the record kept. The horizontal axis is drawn as the square root of the share.

A break rescues a late drum only by ending the reading

A drum that enters after a late root has made the reading needs odds in the hundreds to undo it. Bring it in after a break in the texture, and the obvious guess is that the break helps by making the listener forget whom it trusted. It barely does. What rescues the drum is the listener forgetting what it heard: with the old reading gone, a drum on bar 9 needs odds of nine to one, and with the record gone too it needs less than the three to one it has always had. A break that leaves even a hundredth of the old reading behind rescues nothing at all.

harmony · Progression
A silent break ends the listener's reading only after as many bars as the reading has votes in hand. The choosing listener, every root late, and a break of silence before bar 3, 5, 9 or 13 through which it goes on expecting a downbeat once a bar at the reading it holds, each failure charging that reading 1 vote: the share of passages whose reading the silence ends, against the break's length in bars. Before bar 3, mean margin 2.9 votes: 1 bar 0%, 2 bars 0%, 4 bars 100%, 8 bars 100%, 16 bars 100%; half ended by 3 bars. Before bar 5, mean margin 6.8 votes: 1 bar 0%, 2 bars 0%, 4 bars 0%, 8 bars 88%, 16 bars 100%; half ended by 8 bars. Before bar 9, mean margin 20.7 votes: 1 bar 0%, 2 bars 0%, 4 bars 0%, 8 bars 0%, 16 bars 0%; half ended by 24 bars. Before bar 13, mean margin 38.5 votes: 1 bar 0%, 2 bars 0%, 4 bars 0%, 8 bars 0%, 16 bars 0%; half ended by 48 bars. The horizontal axis is logarithmic in one plus the length.

A silent break has to outlast the reading's lead

A listener waiting through a break goes on expecting downbeats at the reading it holds, and each one that fails to come can be charged against that reading. Charged at a witness's vote apiece, the silence ends the reading only after as many bars as the reading has votes in hand: three bars after two bars of tune, eight after four, twenty-one after eight. A one-bar break would need a missing downbeat to cost twenty votes. And a silence that does end the reading leaves the record standing, which convicts the drum anyway.

harmony · Progression
After a silence long enough to end the reading, a bar of eight fill strokes hands the next reading to the drum. The choosing listener, every root late, a silent break before bar 3, 5 or 9 at one vote a failed downbeat, then a bar of 8 fill strokes for the true barline heard as the drum, then the drum on every downbeat: the share of passages ending on the barline against the silence's length (solid), with the silence alone dashed. Before bar 3: 0 bars 86%, 2 bars 100%, 4 bars 100%, 8 bars 100%, 12 bars 100%, 24 bars 100%; silence alone 4 bars 44%, 8 bars 44%, 12 bars 44%, 24 bars 44%. Before bar 5: 0 bars 0%, 2 bars 0%, 4 bars 53%, 8 bars 99%, 12 bars 100%, 24 bars 100%; silence alone 4 bars 0%, 8 bars 5%, 12 bars 7%, 24 bars 7%. Before bar 9: 0 bars 0%, 2 bars 0%, 4 bars 0%, 8 bars 0%, 12 bars 0%, 24 bars 99%; silence alone 4 bars 0%, 8 bars 0%, 12 bars 0%, 24 bars 0%. The horizontal axis is logarithmic in one plus the length.

A fill cannot end a reading, but it can win the next one

A drum fill in the break before a late drum is a witness that speaks while the old reading still stands, so every stroke it plays is scored as disagreeing, and its credit falls to a coin toss within two or three strokes: at three to one it can cast 1.37 votes in all, against a lead of twenty by the middle of a tune. A fill cannot end a reading. But once a silence has ended it, the same fill sets the next one, and the record that convicted the drum through every length of silence starts convicting the bass instead: after twelve bars of silence before bar 5 the drum goes from 7 per cent of passages to all of them.

harmony · Progression
A cadence hands the next section to a two-stroke fill only by emptying the reading, not by weakening it. The choosing listener, every root late, an honest drum from the bar after a cadence that leaves the share on the axis of the reading's lead (logarithmic, with "none" an emptied reading), with a bar of 2 fill strokes heard as the drum between them: the share of passages ending on the barline. Before bar 3 (mean lead 2.9 votes): 100% 7%, 50% 92%, 30% 100%, 20% 100%, 15% 100%, 12% 100%, 10% 100%, 7% 100%, 5% 100%, 3% 100%, 2% 100%, 1% 100%, 0% 100%. Before bar 5 (mean lead 6.8 votes): 100% 0%, 50% 0%, 30% 0%, 20% 26%, 15% 64%, 12% 87%, 10% 89%, 7% 90%, 5% 93%, 3% 95%, 2% 95%, 1% 96%, 0% 100%. Before bar 9 (mean lead 20.7 votes): 100% 0%, 50% 0%, 30% 0%, 20% 0%, 15% 0%, 12% 0%, 10% 0%, 7% 0%, 5% 1%, 3% 1%, 2% 1%, 1% 2%, 0% 100%. Before bar 13 (mean lead 38.5 votes): 100% 0%, 50% 0%, 30% 0%, 20% 0%, 15% 0%, 12% 0%, 10% 0%, 7% 0%, 5% 0%, 3% 0%, 2% 0%, 1% 0%, 0% 84%.

A cadence has to empty the reading, not weaken it

A drum fill after a long enough silence wins the next section for an honest drum, because it speaks into a reading that is empty. A cadence might do the silence's work in a bar. It does, but only on one condition: before bar 9, a cadence that removes ninety-eight per cent of the listener's conviction leaves a two-stroke fill winning one passage in a hundred, and one that removes all of it lets the fill win every one. The fill turns the reading either way. What the last sliver decides is whether the fill's first stroke is recorded as a disagreement — and that record is what the late root then uses to win the reading back.

harmony · Progression
A cadence that votes as a witness of its own moves the line from an emptied reading to a fiftieth of one. The choosing listener, every root late, a cadence before bar 9 leaving the share on the axis of the reading's lead (logarithmic, "none" an emptied reading); at the cadence its arrival casts one vote for the barline, heard as the tune's long note, as the drum, or as a witness of its own, or is silent; then 1 fill stroke heard as the drum, then the honest drum: the share of passages ending on the barline. a silent cadence: 100% 0%, 50% 0%, 30% 0%, 20% 0%, 15% 0%, 12% 0%, 10% 0%, 7% 0%, 5% 0%, 3% 0%, 2% 0%, 1% 0%, 0% 6%. heard as the tune: 100% 0%, 50% 0%, 30% 0%, 20% 0%, 15% 0%, 12% 0%, 10% 0%, 7% 0%, 5% 1%, 3% 1%, 2% 1%, 1% 10%, 0% 11%. heard as the drum: 100% 0%, 50% 0%, 30% 0%, 20% 0%, 15% 0%, 12% 0%, 10% 0%, 7% 0%, 5% 1%, 3% 1%, 2% 1%, 1% 2%, 0% 100%. heard as its own witness: 100% 0%, 50% 0%, 30% 0%, 20% 0%, 15% 0%, 12% 0%, 10% 0%, 7% 0%, 5% 1%, 3% 51%, 2% 90%, 1% 93%, 0% 93%.

A cadence that votes must not vote as the drum

A cadence lands on a downbeat, so it could cast a vote for the barline at the moment it loosens the listener's grip. Whether that vote helps depends on whose it is taken to be. Heard as the tune's long note, it speaks with credit the tune spent long ago and is worth almost nothing. Heard as the drum, it is exactly one more stroke of fill, and is convicted as the fill's first stroke was. Heard as a witness of its own, it carries a third of a vote and no record to lose — and that moves the line from an emptied reading to a fiftieth of one.

harmony · Progression

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Harmonic rhythmInferenceDownbeatSyncopationExpectationEvidenceMetrical weightOnset patternPriorChord segmentationInformationAdditive metre

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