Concept

Prior — where it appears

The expectation a model brings before it sees any evidence, expressed as a cost for changing its mind. In a key-finder it decides how much evidence a modulation needs, and moving it turns the same passage from two keys alternating into one key with borrowed chords.

Named by 3 essays across 3 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

The one number the ordered key-finder was tuned on. For each rate of alternation between two keys, the cost of changing key at which the model stops hearing two keys and starts hearing borrowed chords in one. The threshold rises with the period — 0.95 at 1 bar, 0.95 at 2 bars, 0.95 at 4 bars, 2.00 at 8 bars, 3.50 at 16 bars — so the parameter and the rate trade off against each other exactly. The value tuned earlier, 2.2, sits above every threshold on this axis, which means its verdict about fast alternation was a consequence of the tuning rather than a finding about the music. Filled means the model names two keys; hollow means it names one and calls the rest borrowings.

A modulation and a borrowing are one number apart

The key-finder that keeps the order has one tuned parameter, and said so. Sweep it and the parameter turns out to be the whole verdict: below a threshold the model hears two keys alternating, above it one key with borrowed chords. The threshold rises with how slowly the keys alternate — and the value it chose sits above every threshold in range, so its finding about fast alternation was a consequence of the tuning.

scales · Key-relations
How surprising each chord is, in bits. Each step's information content, −log₂ of the probability the root-motion weights used here give it. a perfect cadence totals 6.4 bits over 3 steps; a deceptive cadence totals 7.3 bits over 3 steps; I – IV – V – vi totals 7.3 bits over 3 steps. The single most surprising move drawn is IV to V at 2.7 bits, which is 42 per cent of everything its passage spends. The eight weights are ordinal and stipulated rather than counted, so these are the numbers that ordering implies and not a measurement of any repertoire.

Surprise is a number

The chord that did not come was described rather than measured. Its measure is the information content of what did arrive, and a model of the probability has been to hand since the key-finding essays — eight root-motion weights, ordinal and stipulated. Reading them as a distribution prices a deceptive cadence at 2.71 bits against a perfect one's 1.85, and turns up the fact that the largest of the eight had never been read by anything.

harmony · Tonal-expectation
Thirty cents out of tune is heard as 8 on a 125 ms note and 25 on a 1 s one. How far out of tune a note sounds against how far out of tune it is, at 4 note lengths, at 440 hertz. The key is treated as a prior over pitch: a mixture of Gaussians on the twelve scale degrees, weighted by Krumhansl and Kessler's probe-tone profile and given the width the degree account already uses. The likelihood is the note's own effective limen, which for a short note is the Fourier bound 1/2T. The estimate is the posterior mean, and the shrinkage toward a prior is one line of arithmetic. At 1 s a thirty-cent mistuning is heard as 25.0 cents and at 125 ms as 7.8. Every curve turns back up near the middle of the semitone, because past there the nearest degree is the other one and the pull reverses. The buttons sound at A4, which is the pitch the figure is computed at, at the shortest note length it draws.

A short note is heard more in tune than it is

Four earlier essays treat a key as something that reduces the noise in a pitch judgement. Treat it instead as a prior and the prediction changes kind: not a smaller error but a systematic bias, pulling a short note toward the nearest scale degree by an amount the Fourier bound sets. Thirty cents out of tune on an eighth-of-a-second note is heard as eight. And the part the debt got wrong is the part that matters — the bias does not vanish on a long note. It stops at 17 per cent at A4 and at 48 per cent at A2, because the likelihood's width has a floor that no duration removes.

intervals · Pitch-acuity

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Tonal hierarchyExpectationBorrowed chordCadenceDeceptive cadenceDifference limenEntropyHarmonic analysisIntegration timeKey distanceKey-findingLimen

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