Concept

Evidence — where it appears

What a passage offers a model trying to name its key: a bag of notes, an ordered pair of chords, or both. Different kinds of evidence are not independent on real material, because every chord added supplies some of each.

Named by 9 essays across 3 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

Two kinds of evidence, each measured against its own chance. Every key as a point: across, how many standard deviations its cadence count is above what the same bars resampled would give; up, the same for its pitch-class profile correlation. The winner on cadences is key C at 6.2 standard deviations and on profile C at 1.1, and they agree. Standard deviations above chance are the same unit whatever produced them, which is the commensuration this figure is for — and it costs something: it assumes the two chances are equally interesting, which is a weighting in disguise. The obvious null does not work at all for one of the two: shuffling the bars leaves a pitch-class histogram exactly as it was, so its spread is zero and every key scores nothing against it.

A count and a correlation

Cadence evidence is a count of ordered pairs and profile evidence is a correlation with a template, and the cadence essay refused to total them because they are not in the same units. Score each against its own chance and they are — standard deviations above chance are the same unit whatever produced them. Then the trouble moves: the obvious null does nothing at all to one of the two, because shuffling the bars leaves a pitch-class histogram exactly as it was.

harmony · Progression
The passage built so the two statistics disagree. A body of chords diatonic to C major, of growing length, ended by a ii–V–I in G. The bag of notes says one key and the ordered pair says the other, which is the case the earlier figures never contained. The line is the cadence evidence for G, and under the axis is what each reading actually names at each length. The cadence reading holds G up to a body of 6 bars and is overturned at 8, so one explicit cadence is worth about that many bars of profile evidence — and it is overturned by the body's OWN incidental root motions rather than by the histogram at all. That is the finding the earlier essay could not have: on real material the two statistics cannot be varied independently, because lengthening the profile evidence adds cadence evidence too, for a third key.

The passage built to make them disagree

A cadence count and a key-profile correlation have been put on one scale and run on a passage where the two agree, which tells nobody anything. Building one where they disagree — the notes of one key and the cadences of another — measures the exchange rate at about six bars per cadence, and finds something the agreement case concealed: the two statistics cannot be varied independently, because lengthening the profile evidence adds cadence evidence too, for a third key.

harmony · Progression
Where a bar of 25 and a bar of 9 first disagree. The additive metre 2+2+2+3+2+2+2+3+2+2+3 — 25 units, an onset at the head of every group — with the accents it predicts drawn above the accents predicted by reading it as a repeating bar of 9, which is the cut of it that agrees longest. The two rows are identical for 24 consecutive steps and differ for the first time at step 25, where the shorter reading expects an accent and the metre does not supply one. Nothing before that step distinguishes the two hypotheses, so a listener who has not heard 25 consecutive steps has no evidence either way — whatever they are disposed to hear.

A twenty-five is a nine until its last unit

Every account of long additive metres says they are heard as groups of shorter ones, and the metre-induction model had never been pointed at the claim. Pointed at it, the model does not prefer the group — it prefers the long bar outright, and would go on preferring it more the longer anybody listened. What it cannot do is start: the evidence that separates a bar of twenty-five from a bar of nine does not exist until the whole bar has been heard, and at the tempo an unequal metre is best played at the psychological present holds sixteen units.

rhythm · Additive metre
The product and the sum of standard scores, finding the barline, chords at 1. Constructed passages of four bars of eight quavers, 100 at each setting, with the barline at the first slot. Rhythm regularity is how much likelier a note is on a strong slot than a weak one; chord regularity is how much likelier a note is to be a tone of its bar's chord than a random scale tone. rhythm 0: product finds it 16%, sum of z finds it 22%, metre finds it 10%, chords, z 35%; rhythm 0.25: product finds it 56%, sum of z finds it 58%, metre finds it 34%, chords, z 38%; rhythm 0.5: product finds it 66%, sum of z finds it 61%, metre finds it 49%, chords, z 19%; rhythm 0.75: product finds it 56%, sum of z finds it 58%, metre finds it 50%, chords, z 14%; rhythm 1: product finds it 45%, sum of z finds it 48%, metre finds it 50%, chords, z 12%.

The chords are a weak witness to the barline

Scaled by its own range, the metre overrules the chords every time the two disagree about where a bar begins. The obvious repair is to score each reading against its own chance — the metre against the same number of notes placed at random, the chords against the passage's notes shuffled across its bars — and add the standard scores. It changes very little: the search finds the barline within six points of where the product found it, and the chords gain the power to move the barline only on passages whose rhythm says nothing, where random notes move it nearly as often. The null's real result is the size of the two witnesses. At the written barline the metre stands up to 5.9 standard deviations above chance, and the chords, with every note a tone of its bar's chord, stand 1.55 above it at best.

harmony · Progression
An accent moves the longest separable bar from 16 units to 18, and no further. For every bar length from 9 to 25 units, over all 1820 arrangements of twos and threes that are not a repeat of a shorter bar, the fewest and the most consecutive steps before the whole bar beats every shorter cut of it. 9: onsets alone 9 to 14, long beat predicted 7 to 12, downbeat predicted 7 to 8; 10: onsets alone 10 to 13, long beat predicted 8 to 11, downbeat predicted 8 to 9; 11: onsets alone 11 to 18, long beat predicted 9 to 16, downbeat predicted 9 to 10; 12: onsets alone 12 to 17, long beat predicted 10 to 15, downbeat predicted 10 to 11; 13: onsets alone 13 to 22, long beat predicted 11 to 20, downbeat predicted 11 to 12; 14: onsets alone 14 to 23, long beat predicted 12 to 21, downbeat predicted 12 to 13; 15: onsets alone 15 to 26, long beat predicted 13 to 24, downbeat predicted 13 to 14; 16: onsets alone 16 to 25, long beat predicted 14 to 23, downbeat predicted 14 to 15; 17: onsets alone 17 to 30, long beat predicted 15 to 28, downbeat predicted 15 to 16; 18: onsets alone 18 to 29, long beat predicted 16 to 27, downbeat predicted 16 to 17; 19: onsets alone 19 to 34, long beat predicted 17 to 32, downbeat predicted 17 to 18; 20: onsets alone 20 to 35, long beat predicted 18 to 33, downbeat predicted 18 to 19; 21: onsets alone 21 to 38, long beat predicted 19 to 36, downbeat predicted 19 to 20; 22: onsets alone 22 to 37, long beat predicted 20 to 35, downbeat predicted 20 to 21; 23: onsets alone 23 to 42, long beat predicted 21 to 40, downbeat predicted 21 to 22; 24: onsets alone 24 to 41, long beat predicted 22 to 39, downbeat predicted 22 to 23; 25: onsets alone 25 to 46, long beat predicted 23 to 44, downbeat predicted 23 to 24. A present of 3.5 seconds holds 16.0 steps at 218 milliseconds a step, so the longest bar some arrangement of which separates inside it is 16 units on onsets alone, 18 with the long beat predicted and 18 with the downbeat predicted.

The accent buys two units, however loud it is

A twenty-five cannot be told from a group of shorter bars on its onsets until more steps have gone by than a listener's present holds, and the obvious objection is that nobody plays an aksak bar as bare onsets: the long beat is louder, and the bar's first beat is marked. So how loud does an accent have to be? The question has a surprising answer. Loudness is not the variable. The existing accent cue changes nothing, and delays the answer where it changes anything. An accent that a reading has to predict works at any strength at all, and at no strength does more than a fixed amount: on the long beat it buys the two steps of a short beat, and on the downbeat it takes every arrangement to one floor — the bar less its last beat — which no cue carried by the notes can break. The longest bar that can be heard as one moves from sixteen units to eighteen.

rhythm · Additive metre
Four bars read by where the chords change, barline by barline. A constructed passage of four bars of eight quavers, its barline at the first slot and its chords C, F, Em, Dm. Notes: slot 1 C, slot 3 E, slot 4 G, slot 5 E, slot 6 C, slot 9 C, slot 10 C, slot 11 F, slot 13 A, slot 16 C, slot 17 B, slot 19 B, slot 20 E, slot 21 E, slot 24 G, slot 25 F, slot 29 F. For each of the eight places the barline could fall: as written metre, z 3.97, chords, z 2.00, change, z 4.30, metre + change, z 8.27; 1 quaver late metre, z -2.45, chords, z 2.14, change, z -0.87, metre + change, z -3.32; 2 quavers late metre, z -1.38, chords, z 2.15, change, z -0.54, metre + change, z -1.93; 3 quavers late metre, z -0.31, chords, z -0.27, change, z -2.64, metre + change, z -2.95; 4 quavers late metre, z 3.97, chords, z -1.63, change, z -4.30, metre + change, z -0.33; 5 quavers late metre, z -2.45, chords, z 1.27, change, z 0.87, metre + change, z -1.58; 6 quavers late metre, z -1.38, chords, z 1.18, change, z 0.54, metre + change, z -0.84; 7 quavers late metre, z -0.31, chords, z 1.05, change, z 2.64, metre + change, z 2.32. Best metre, z: as written and 4 late. Best chords, z: 2 late. Best change, z: as written. Best metre + change, z: as written.

The chords mark the barline by changing there

Read bar by bar, the chords stood barely above chance at the barline and broke the metre's half-bar tie two times in three at best. Read instead by where they change — how different the chords are across a candidate's barlines against how different they are across the middle of its bars — the same notes break the tie right on 81 to 96 per cent of passages, and added to the metre they find the barline on up to 89 per cent against 61. The weakness was the question the old reading asked, not the harmony.

harmony · Progression
The content errs slow and the bass errs fast. Passages of eight bars built at three harmonic rhythms, each with a bass that states every new chord's root and moves to another chord tone on a beat 50 per cent of the time. Two readings are asked the chord rate: one from how much the pitch-class content changes across a grid, one from how completely the bass's moves land on it. At two chords a bar the content reading names the rate 63 per cent of the time, too fast 0 and too slow 37; the bass reading 100, 0 and 0. At one chord a bar the content reading names the rate 67 per cent of the time, too fast 0 and too slow 33; the bass reading 18, 80 and 2. At a chord every two bars the content reading names the rate 98 per cent of the time, too fast 2 and too slow 0; the bass reading 0, 100 and 0. The two readings miss in opposite directions and at opposite ends of the tempo range: the content reading at fast harmonic rhythms, by naming a multiple, and the bass reading at slow ones, by naming its own arpeggiation.

The bass errs fast where the content errs slow

Asked how often the chords change, a reading built on pitch-class content names a slower multiple and never a faster rate. Give the passage a bass that states each new root and moves between chord tones inside a chord, and a reading built on the bass's moves errs the other way: it names a faster grid and never a slower one. At two chords a bar the bass is right every time; at a chord every two bars it is never right. Six ways of combining the two readings each trade one end of the range for the other.

harmony · Progression
The ceiling is thirteen bars, and every one of them has a name. Every bar of the six schemes read by the key-finder at a key cost of 3 and a bass weight of 3, with the chord in every bar given exactly — no segmentation is involved. 175 of 188 bars have both the key and the degree right, 93.1 per cent. The misses: 7 in the thirty-two-bar song's bridge, where the chain III7 is read in E major, III7 is read in E major, VI7 is read in E major, VI7 is read in D major, II7 is read in D major, II7 is read in D major, V7 is read in D major; 4 bars of the rondo's A minor episode read as C major; 2 next to a change of key; and 0 of any other kind.

The ceiling is thirteen bars with names

The key-finder's two cues stop buying anything at about 93 per cent of scheme bars read right, and the obvious suspect was the chord segmentation feeding it. The reading was never given a segmentation: every bar arrives with its true chord. What the ceiling is made of can be listed instead, and it is thirteen bars of 188 — seven in a bridge of secondary dominants, four in a minor episode whose chords C major also owns, and two at the edges of a modulation. No weight of any cue moves one of them.

scales · Key-relations
Holding the bass through one mid-bar change in six finds the barline five times in six. Passages of eight bars at two chords a bar, with the bass arpeggiating on 50 per cent of its beats, and each barline reading's share of passages it places correctly, against the share of mid-bar chord changes voiced over the bass already sounding. 0% held (convention strength 0): metre then bass 50%, bass alone 13%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 10%; 4% held (convention strength 0.1): metre then bass 62%, bass alone 34%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 10%; 6% held (convention strength 0.2): metre then bass 68%, bass alone 44%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 15%; 9% held (convention strength 0.3): metre then bass 75%, bass alone 57%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 18%; 15% held (convention strength 0.4): metre then bass 82%, bass alone 68%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 13%; 16% held (convention strength 0.5): metre then bass 85%, bass alone 74%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 14%; 20% held (convention strength 0.6): metre then bass 88%, bass alone 79%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 11%; 26% held (convention strength 0.7): metre then bass 92%, bass alone 86%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 13%; 27% held (convention strength 0.8): metre then bass 92%, bass alone 86%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 13%; 28% held (convention strength 0.9): metre then bass 95%, bass alone 92%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 10%; 33% held (convention strength 1): metre then bass 96%, bass alone 93%, metre alone 50%, chord changes alone 10%. The metre ties the barline with the half-bar and the chord changes are at chance, since the chords change at both; the bass's holds are the only evidence that separates them.

A bass that holds through a change marks the barline

At two chords a bar the chords change on the barline and on the half-bar alike, so a reading of where they change is at chance, and the metre ties the two. The bass has one more piece of evidence: a change inside the bar can be voiced over the note already sounding, and a change on the barline is voiced over its root. Hold the bass through one mid-bar change in six and the metre and bass together place the barline in 85 per cent of eight-bar passages; one in three, 97. The convention cannot be stronger than that, and the chord changes, asked first, only get in the way.

harmony · Progression

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

MetreHarmonic rhythmInferenceSegmentationHarmonic analysisKey-findingStatisticsAdditive metreAksakCadenceChord segmentationMetrical level

All concepts