Concept

Surprise — where it appears

The information an event carries, taken as minus the log of how probable it was. It is what turns a distribution of chords or of arrival times into a quantity per event, in bits, that can be summed over a passage.

Named by 6 essays across one field — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

Expectation as a curve, and what a change costs where it lands. Every quantity so far is attached to a chord change: a list of surprises, one per event. A listener's expectation is continuous — it sharpens through a bar and collapses when the change arrives — and the two ingredients for it are already here, the harmonic rhythm and the metrical beat weights. The curve is the hazard: given that the chord has not changed yet, the chance that it changes on this beat. It runs from 0.043 on the weakest beat to 0.290 on the downbeat, a ratio of 6.7, against 0.125 if every beat were alike. The marked beats are where the changes actually arrive, and their timing bill is 3.6 bits against 6.0 for a listener with no metre — so these changes are 1.7 times cheaper to expect than a metreless listener would find them. That term is new: an earlier essay prices which chord arrived and this prices when, and a listener meets the sum.

Expectation is a curve, not a list

Every quantity so far is attached to a chord change: a list of surprises, one per event. A listener's expectation is continuous, sharpening through a bar and collapsing when the change arrives — and the two ingredients for it were already here, in two other accounts. What comes out is a second surprise, for when a chord arrives rather than for which one it is.

harmony · Tonal-expectation
The number nobody has moves the size and not the order. The mean total surprise per chord change, against how much the two surprises share. At zero they are independent and the total is their sum; at one they are the same event and the total is the larger of the two. The mean falls by a factor of 1.53 across that whole range, which is the size of the thing a corpus would settle. The ordering of the events by total surprise does not move at all until the very end: 5 of the 6 correlations swept give exactly the ordering independence gives, and only perfect dependence changes it, by 3 places out of 7. The most surprising event in the passage is the same one at every correlation. So the corpus three separate accounts have recorded wanting would change what this figure reports and not what it concludes.

Two surprises and one event

A chord change is surprising twice over — in which chord it is, and in when it comes — and a listener meets one event. Adding two surprises needs to know how much they share, which is a fact about a repertoire nobody has. Sweeping it instead: the total moves by half, the ordering does not move at all, and the most surprising moment in a passage is the same one whatever the answer turns out to be.

harmony · Tonal-expectation
A third of the timing surprise is paid for by nothing happening. Every beat of a bar of 4/4 at 1 chord change a bar, with what it costs a listener in expectation. The lower block is the arrival — the chance the chord changes here times what that change costs to be surprised by. The upper block is the hold, which is paid when the chord does not change and is charged at every beat rather than at every event. Over the bar the arrivals come to 2.61 bits and the non-arrivals to 1.29, so the term never spent before is 33 per cent of the total rather than most of it. The two together are exactly the binary entropy of each beat's own hazard, which is why the bar's whole timing bill is 3.90 bits and cannot be raised by rearranging where the changes fall.

The surprise of nothing happening

A hazard charges a listener twice — once when the chord changes and once, quietly, at every beat it does not. The second term was expected to dominate, because there are more beats than changes. It is a third of the bill at one chord a bar and never reaches a half at any rate a metre survives, because the cost of a beat where nothing happens is second-order small.

harmony · Tonal-expectation
What a chord change costs where it actually lands. Every beat of a bar of 4/4 at 1 change a bar, priced as a listener meets it: the pale block is what has already been paid waiting through the beats the chord did not come on, and the dark block is the arrival itself. Their sum is what it costs to be surprised by a change here. The last column is the remaining case, never priced before: no change in the bar at all, at 1.61 bits and a probability of 0.33. The 9 costs are a proper distribution — 1.000 — which is the check that this is one model rather than two. And the spread is the finding: the arrival term alone puts a factor of 6.7 between the best and worst beat, and counting the waiting makes it 19.

Where the chord actually lands

Every timing surprise so far is evaluated on a downbeat: the curve spans a factor of 6.7 and every number is read at its peak. Charge the waiting as well as the arrival and the costs over a bar become a proper distribution, the spread between the best and worst beat rises to a factor of 19.5, and a third of the probability sits on a bar in which nothing changes at all.

harmony · Tonal-expectation
Eighty-one chords the expectation model cannot tell apart. Every voicing of a dominant seventh on G inside the three octaves above its own root, placed by how rough it is and how far its outer voices are apart, and coloured by which member of the chord is at the bottom. The roughness runs from 0.269 to 1.449, a factor of 5.4, computed from each voicing's own spectrum under Plomp and Levelt's roughness model. The identity surprise the expectation model assigns is 3.51 bits for every one of the 81, because it is a function of a scale degree and its predecessor and there is no register anywhere in it. What separates them is spacing rather than inversion: roughness falls as the outer voices spread apart, correlating -0.42 with the span, and is indifferent to which member of the chord is at the bottom at 0.02. The seventh in the bass is not what makes a chord rough; a fourth and a third packed together at the bottom of the range is.

Eighty-one chords, one number

A dominant seventh has eighty-one arrangements inside three octaves and their roughness spans a factor of five and a half. The tonal-expectation model gives every one of them the same 3.51 bits, because its states are scale degrees and there is no register anywhere in them. Conditioning the surprise on the voicing costs no corpus — and the arithmetic says the conditioning belongs beside the probability rather than inside it, for three reasons that can each be computed.

harmony · Tonal-expectation
Level does not dilute the register's roughness, it multiplies it. The mean roughness of the I – vi – IV – V – I arrivals at 4 registers, each relative to the register as written, read three ways. Level-free, the bass is 8.6 times rougher than the treble. With every note at 70 dB it is 8.6 times, the same factor, because one level rescales every pair alike. With each chord played at the level that makes it as loud as the written register's chords — 82.8 dB −2 octaves, 75.5 dB −1 octave, 70.0 dB as written, 66.8 dB +1 octave — the bass is 343 times rougher than the treble, because roughness grows with the square of the pressure and the bass needs more of it to be heard at the same loudness.

A rough arrival is rough because of its spacing

The pair the expectation essays report for every chord — how surprising it was, how rough its voicing is — has no level in it. Putting level back in answers the question it left open, and not the way it was framed. At one written dynamic the arrivals keep their order from 40 to 90 dB at three registers of four, and the bass stays 8.6 times rougher than the treble. Made equally loud, the bass has to be played 12.8 dB harder, and it is 343 times rougher: level does not explain the register's roughness away, it multiplies it.

harmony · Tonal-expectation

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

ExpectationInformationHarmonic rhythmMetreCritical bandwidthInferenceMetrical weightRegisterRoughnessSyncopationVoicingDynamics

All concepts