Probe-tone — where it appears
Named by 14 essays across 4 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.
Counting produced the hierarchy
Ask listeners how well each of the twelve notes fits after a passage in C major and the answers are not a smooth gradient. They fall into four groups with no overlap at all: the tonic, then the rest of the tonic triad, then the rest of the scale, then everything else — categories the subject had names for centuries before anybody ran the experiment.
The chord that did not come
A deceptive cadence is described as a surprise, and the explanation offered is that the wrong chord arrived. Measured against the tonal hierarchy already in use, the wrong chord is the second best-fitting triad in the key — and two of its three voices do exactly what they would have done in the right one. The surprise is not statistical. It is one voice, and it is the bass.
What a tonic costs in seconds
The standard key-finding algorithm cannot be run on a pitch-class set at all — a flat histogram has no variance and the correlation is undefined. Give it durations and it answers with the parent key for all seven modes identically, and it takes between 15.8 and 30.0 per cent of the total time spent on one note before it names that note instead.
Two keys at once
Every key figure so far assumes one key is sounding, and the standard key-finder has no value it can return that means two. Play one progression in C and the same progression a major third away at the same time, and the model does not report uncertainty: it reports E minor, at a correlation of 0.886, against 0.959 for the same progression in one key. It is as confident as it ever is, and neither key it names is being played. Give it the missing hypothesis — pairs of key profiles rather than single ones — and it recovers both keys at every separation, all seven of seven.
The quantity a rival account says is not there
Two earlier essays measure how much two notes' errors are correlated through a shared anchor, and price what that correlation would be worth. There is a rival account in which a listener refers each note to a key and never forms the distance at all — under which the correlation is not small, it is a description of something that is not happening. The two accounts agree on almost everything and disagree on one manipulation, and the manipulation costs an afternoon.
A chord, given a key and a predecessor
A chord's improbability has been priced from its root motion alone, which left one multiplication unmade: a chord is also improbable because its notes do not fit the key, and that number has been available since the probe-tone profile. Multiplied and renormalised, the two give a conditional distribution — and a distribution has an entropy, which is the quantity a surprise has to be read against and which a list of preferences cannot supply.
The passage built to make them disagree
A cadence count and a key-profile correlation have been put on one scale and run on a passage where the two agree, which tells nobody anything. Building one where they disagree — the notes of one key and the cadences of another — measures the exchange rate at about six bars per cadence, and finds something the agreement case concealed: the two statistics cannot be varied independently, because lengthening the profile evidence adds cadence evidence too, for a third key.
The key-finder with no tonic
Thirteen essays of key-finding have run over twelve major collections and not twenty-four keys, so a passage in A minor is read as C. Adding the missing twelve costs almost nothing and fixes almost nothing — because the model has no tonic in it at all, and below three raised sevenths in a passage the extra states are worth exactly zero.
A short note is heard more in tune than it is
Four earlier essays treat a key as something that reduces the noise in a pitch judgement. Treat it instead as a prior and the prediction changes kind: not a smaller error but a systematic bias, pulling a short note toward the nearest scale degree by an amount the Fourier bound sets. Thirty cents out of tune on an eighth-of-a-second note is heard as eight. And the part the debt got wrong is the part that matters — the bias does not vanish on a long note. It stops at 17 per cent at A4 and at 48 per cent at A2, because the likelihood's width has a floor that no duration removes.
An interval is two posteriors subtracted
Treating a key as a prior over one note predicts that an interval's pull is not the single-note pull doubled, because the two degrees are not equally weighted. Half of that is wrong: splitting a mistuning between the two notes gives exactly the mean of what each end gives alone, to a thousandth, at every one of the twenty-one intervals in the scale. What is not the mean is which end carries it — and the pull turns out to be largest not on the shortest notes but on notes of about an eighth of a second, where the likelihood is a quarter of a semitone wide.
Which end the mistuning is on
Twenty-one intervals in the major scale, each with two ends, and the same twenty-five cents reaches a listener at anywhere between 32 and 79 per cent of its size depending on which of the two notes carries it. The most lopsided is the tonic to the leading note, where a departure on the upper note arrives two and a half times as strongly as the same departure on the lower. Two mechanisms produce it and they can be separated by one flag: two thirds of the asymmetry is register and one third is the key.
The setting is not the preference
Every published number for an interval listeners prefer — the pure third a quartet is said to find, the raised leading note, the harmonic seventh — is a value somebody adjusted until it sounded right. A listener adjusting inside a key is adjusting through the posterior computed just before, so the value they stopped at is not the one they preferred: it is the one whose heard size equals it. On quarter-second notes the correction for a pure major third is 12.8 cents, which is nearly a syntonic comma and is larger than the 13.7-cent preference it corrects.
A boundary beside a fifth
A closed form established earlier says an n-category division costs n·σ·√(2/π) whatever the widths are, so a boundary costs the same wherever it is put and the step pattern cannot matter. Its own last section named the assumption that produces the null: one σ, applied to every boundary in the octave. Let σ follow how securely each interval is held and the formula becomes a sum over boundaries rather than n copies of one — the diatonic's error rises from 5.1 per cent to 11.8, and where the degrees are put matters again.
The unequal scale that is easier to name
The whole of the earlier result was that a scale's step pattern cannot matter, and every tradition it drew agreed with the equal division of its own size to three decimal places. With one noise per boundary the comparison is live again, and the tempered diatonic beats seven equal steps by eleven per cent — while the pentatonics gain nothing and the maqam scales gain two tenths of one per cent. Only one of the two security models produces the effect, and it is the one that was not measured on listeners raised inside the tradition it is being used to explain.
Named alongside it
The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.
Scale degreeKey-findingTonal hierarchyDifference limenCentsExpectationCadenceJust intonationModulationTonicBayesian inferenceCategorical perception